Preparing for Uncertain Futures: Co-created scenarios for the Russian Arctic

People living or working in the Arctic are faced with uncertainty regarding future social, political, economic, and environmental change. This uncertainty is due not least to the ongoing transformations caused by climate change. This paper presents results from a project entitled “Yamal 2040: Scenarios for the Russian Arctic”, which employed ‘Strategic Foresight’, a specific co-design and engagement methodology, to support stakeholders of one particular region in the Arctic, the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug (Yamal region) in Western Siberia, Russia. It was the project’s objective to respond to this situation of general uncertainty, to develop forward-looking scenarios to better understand the risks and opportunities associated with future transformations in the Arctic. The findings presented here may be of interest for stakeholders in other parts of the Arctic and Russia that depend on the exploitation of fossil fuels and/or are facing complex and uncertain situations.